GUWAHATI: This assembly election has sprung quite a few surprises. While ruling Congress and challenger BJP wait it out to see in whose favour the poll math adds up, the biggest surprise has perhaps been the shift in Congress's support base.The Grand Old Party failed to sweep the Meitei-dominated valley districts, which have traditionally been its strongholds. Almost 65% of Manipur's population lives in the Imphal valley , which is dominated by the majority non-tribal Meiteis , while the tribal Nagas and Kukis, which make up the remaining 35%, are distributed across the hills.The biggest dent to Congress prospects this time came from the valley. The region makes up only 10% of the state's geographical area but has 40 of the 60 assembly seats. It was the shift of the majority Vaishnavite vote bloc here that gave BJP the upper hand. Both parties had invested their trust in the Hindu Vaishnavite vote bank. But Congress won just 19 seats in the valley, down from 28 five years ago, while BJP has gone on to claim 16 of the valley seats.On the other hand, having won 14 of the 20 seats in the hills, Congress won just nine this time. Of these, four are in Naga-dominated areas while the rest are from Kuki-dominated areas. Chief minister Okram Ibobi Singh had made a gamble by creating new districts for the Kukis, which did not pay off as expected. In 2012, Congress had won eight seats from Kuki-dominated areas, which came down to five this time around. On the other hand, BJP, riding on promises of better governance, made its debut in the hills by winning six seats while NPF maintained its 2012 figure of four.Congress has, however, surprised friend and foe alike by wresting Ukhrul - located in NSCN (I-M) chief Isak Muivah's home district - from the Naga People's Front (NPF). This, despite opposing the aspiration of a 'Greater Nagaland' cutting across parts of Manipur's territory in the hills. The Congress setback in the hills, however, does not come as a surprise. Ibobi knew well the furore he had attracted from the Nagas after he created new districts for the Kukis. Consequently, the Nagas hit back by imposing an economic blockade on the state's two lifelines - NH-2 and NH-37 - which entered its 131st day on Saturday.One of the biggest fallouts of the hill-valley divide, in fact, has been the blockade. The question that every voter, whether in the hills or the valley, asked political parties during the campaign was who would lift the blockade. No one had the answer, not even Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who could only blame Ibobi for engineering the blockade for political gains. While the blame game continued, the economic blockade crippled the state's poor economy, sent prices of essential goods and fuel prices, including LPG, skyrocketing in the black market.

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