Gujarat government will spend just 2.46% higher in the next fiscal, compared to the amount it is estimated to spend at the end of the current fiscal. Experts say if average inflation of 5.0% is considered, the value of spend next fiscal will be lower than the revised estimates at the end of the current fiscal. Even if we consider the budget estimates for the fiscal 17-18, the rise for the next fiscal is just 7.89% and meager if the inflation is factored in. The fine print paints a different picture than the one shown by Finance Minister Nitin Patel on Tuesday, when he presented the budget that claimed high spending for rural sector and job creation for the youth. Revenue outlay for development sectors rose marginally from Rs 82,241.29 crore as per the revised estimates for 2017-18 to Rs 82,443.37 crore for the fiscal. The rise in capital outlay was little better from Rs 26,647.88 crore (RE for 2017-18) to Rs 29,121.60 crore (BE for 2018-19). Overall, the rise in total expenditure is a meager 2.46%. The figures improve marginally if budget estimates of 2017-18 is considered. The estimate for expenses rise from Rs 1,03,498.49 crore to Rs 1,11,654.97 crore, indicating a rise of 7.89%. Experts say this is grossly inadequate, even inflation of 5% is considered. Then it is near stagnancy in development expenditure. "If we want real rise in expenses, it should be around 15% compared to the previous year, in order to benefit the masses. Otherwise, the rise will just be able to compensate for inflation and there will not be any substantial benefits," said Mahender Jethmalani, economist at Patheya Budget Centre. Experts say that this will only lead to tinkering with the allocations here and there, with no substantial boost to social welfare or economic development. "It practically means that the size of the budget has stagnated. If we consider inflation, then the real expenditure will actually fall and all sectors will suffer," said Hemantkumar Shah, professor of Economics at HK Arts College. Bhagyesh Soneji, chairperson of ASSOCHAM – Gujarat, said that the main victims would be sectors such as social welfare, women and child development and education. "This raises a question that if the government is collecting higher taxes, where is the expenditure going?" asked Soneji.

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