Live | The Huddle 2018| We see India-China relationship as a T20 rather than Test match: Shivshankar Menon

  • | Sunday | 18th February, 2018

With economic growth China may look towards strategic dominance, and India needs to be prepared for this. If both countries can manage the differences, it does not have to be about India vs China, says Shivashankar Menon. In conversation with Veena Venugopal, Associate Editor, The Hindu1 p.m.Stating that Bollywood is not India, Ms. Shah says, "I come from a time when people talked about India they talked about great art. Stating that the China-Pakistan relationship is a long term relationship, Mr. Haqqani says, China had decided that having friendly relationship with Pakistan to tie down India. To raise growth rates, w need to raise investments, says Mr. Subbarao.

The second edition of The Huddle, started on February 17, continues on Sunday at the ITC Gardenia in Bengaluru. Presented by Yes Bank, The Huddle, a thoughts and ideas conclave, is a platform that attempts to bring under a single roof some of the best minds from politics, academia, the entertainment industry, the corporate world, sports and civil society. There will be a plethora of guests on the second day which includes Union Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, former Ambassador of Pakistan to US Husain Haqqani, former National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon, Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh and former RBI Governors. Watch: Session 3: Coming of Age: The mainstreaming of parallel cinema. Actor and director Ratna Pathak Shah, actor and director Suhasini Maniratnam, director Amit Masurkar. In conversation with Veena Venugopal, Associate Editor, The Hindu 1 p.m. Stating that Bollywood is not India, Ms. Shah says, "I come from a time when people talked about India they talked about great art. Suddenly all India represents outside our border is Bollywood. Bollywood is not India. This is a simplistic, vulgar and childish idea of India. It has promoted hypocrisy beyond relief." Session 2: Asian Century: Does it have to be India vs China? Husain Haqqani, former Ambassador of Pakistan to USA, Shivshankar Menon, former National Security Adviser, Andrew Small, writer. In conversation with Narayan Lakshman, Associate Editor, The Hindu 12 p.m. If both countries can manage the differences, it does not have to be about India vs China, says Shivashankar Menon. On Doklam crisis, he says though there will be face offs, but as long as we know how to handle it, the problem should not escalate. "Both sides dont want to escalate the problem. It has been the most peaceful border. There have been no deaths since 1975," he says. Stating that in long run India and China will be rivals. "In a choice between democratic and totalitarian state, it is always the totalitarian state that chooses who the adversary is," says Mr. Haqqani, adding that Pakistani military elite has always thought of India as the permanent enemy, which I always have been critical about. "Pakistan has looked at the global context nd determined they'll back China," he adds. "While there are many companies are looking east at China, the economy is very closed there," says Andrew Small, adding that even private sector is operating more under the influence of the party than ever before. On whether India and US can come together to address China's exertion, he says, "China's strategic economic investments are achieving great things in smaller countries such as Maldives and Sri Lanka. Countries like India, Japan and US need a different response and back it up with resources. Stating that the China-Pakistan relationship is a long term relationship, Mr. Haqqani says, China had decided that having friendly relationship with Pakistan to tie down India. "Indian soldiers will be engaged in Pakistan and cannot focus on China directly." With economic growth China may look towards strategic dominance, and India needs to be prepared for this. "India must start re-looking at this outlook." "As China continues to protect a major player of terror in the region, I think it will once have to face the impact of this terror," he says. Stating that India has an opportunity to change the world order, Mr. Menon says, "USA under Trump is no longer interested in running world order, but China though may be a global economic superpower, it cannot run the world order. India not being a status quo power and battling for change in old world order, it provides an opportunity." China approach may be attractive at first, but one only has to look at th debt-trap faced backed Sri Lanka and Pakistan, says Mr. Haqqani. "Nobody lends endlessly without returns - monetary or strategic. Neglecting the strategic interests of China will be at their own peril," he adds. In response to N. Ram, chairman, The Hindu Group, stating that commentators have done great disservice by distorting the India-China relationships, Mr. Menon says, "The problem is that we see India-China relationship as a T20 rather than a Test match. We expect every ball to be a six or a wicket. We need a new modus vivendi." Session 1: Balancing Growth and Inflation: D Subbarao, Former Governor of RBI C Rangarajan, Former Governor of RBI, Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Former Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission of India, In conversation with Raghavan Srinivasan, Editor, The Hindu BusinessLine 10.30 a.m. In the long term, there is no conflict between inflation and growth. In fact, sustained high growth rate is only possible in an environment of reasonable price stability. In short-term, there is a trade off, but there needs to be a balance, says Mr. Rangarajan. On what is the acceptable inflation rate, he says, "We had once said that 4 % is acceptable. Zero inflation is impossible. If we allow growth ignoring inflation, there will be problems. We cannot allow inflation to reach 7 to 8 % for growth." Too much growth that is beyond the productive capacity of the economy leads to higher inflation and is not worth it, says Montek Singh Ahluwalia. Challenge is when output is below potential, while inflation is high. This is the problem currently, he adds. Many people believe there is trade off between growth and inflation, this is a false dichotomy, says Subbarao. Low inflation is necessary for growth, he says. He says government policies have impact on output and inflation and the central banks can only work for price stability. "If inflation goes up, growth goes down. The threshold is 4 %. It is a tolerable level of inflation," he adds. "Politicians have a difficult job thank people think," says Mr. Ahluwalia, adding that they want low inflation in every commodity. "They are under attack on every front. Have a little sympathy for the finance minister." To bring about relative price change, it is believed, we have to tolerate higher inflation rates. But opinion on the acceptable levels of inflation wary. The acceptable level of inflation in our minds may be out of line with what other countries may consider appropriate. This may impact the exchange rates, says Mr. Rangarajan. Stating that there is pressure not just from the demand side but also supply, Mr. Subbarao said, Central bank usually ignored the latter if they think it is short term. But, in India, the supply of commodities shocks the system. There is a question of inflation not following the rule, but no one asks about fiscal deficit. "We keep postponing the limit," says Mr. Ahluwalia. To raise growth rates, w need to raise investments, says Mr. Subbarao. Agreeing, Mr. Ahluwalia says that banking system should be given high priority. "The banks must be go back to lending." Stating that the decline in growth is due to decline in private investment, Mr. Rangarajan says the government should meet industry representatives and find out what is holding back private investment.

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