Experts says that Karnataka might hit its peak in Covid-19 infection cases by September end or early October and start plateauing only by the year-end

On Thursday, Karnataka reported 9,386 Covid-19 positive cases, which was yet another single-day highest, taking the total to 3,09,792. But worryingly, the state has not yet hit the peak. Going by the current indicators, the virus infections are likely to peak by September-end or early October and start plateauing only by the year-end, experts said.

According to a team of researchers at the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), in the “best-case scenario”, the country could see a spike with an estimate of 26 lakh total cases and 4.5 lakh ongoing cases by September 30.

Prof Sashikumaar Ganesan, Chairman, Department of Computational and Data Sciences (CDS) and Head, Computational Mathematics Group (CMG), IIsc, who is one of the researchers of this model, said, “We have done a six-dimensional, data-based computational model for epidemics that have been adapted for Covid- 19 in the country.

We have noticed that in Karnataka and several other states, it has peaked in highly urbanised and medium urbanised areas. We are yet to see the rise in rural areas. If there is no intervention, the state should see a spike by September.”

Experts are, however, divided. While a few say that the plateau is expected towards the end of December, some claim that it could be by October-end. “More than a peak, Karnataka will have a plateau that will only reduce towards mid- October,” said Dr. Giridhara R Babu, a senior epidemiologist and member of the state advisory committee.

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