BHOPAL: On the face of it, it may appear strange that Congress, the main Opposition party in Madhya Pradesh , should be so keen to stitch an alliance with BSP, whose candidates lost their deposit in 194 of 227 the party contested in 2013. More so that BSP should not respond and then suddenly announce candidates for 22 assembly seats, taking Congress by surprise.Despite this, Congress is still optimistic that BSP will come around and an alliance will be struck. “We’d still like all like-minded parties to come together against BJP but all the parties have their own strategies and compulsions. We can’t force them to have a truck with Congress. In any case, we are very strong in MP and alliance or no alliance, we are winning the assembly election hands down,” said Abhay Dubey, vice-chairman of state Congress media committee.But why is Congress so keen for an alliance with a party that had a vote share of 6.27% in MP in 2013 and won only four seats?Political observer Girija Shankar, who has written a number of books on MP assembly elections, explained that BSP in MP is “different from what it is in UP”. “It’s not a Dalit party in MP but has more support among OBC voters. There have only ever been two BSP MPs from MP. Both are OBCs. One of them, Sukhlal Kushwah, defeated Arjun Singh. It may be a marginal party with 6% vote share but look at their vote percentage in Vindhya, where they polled 19% votes, and Chambal, where they bagged 17%. This is what makes BSP a potent political force,” he said.So, what does the maths say? “BSP has a committed vote bank. It neither goes to Congress nor BJP. An alliance with Congress will, however, reorient these votes towards Congress. It’s significant that even in the landslide victory of 2013, the difference in vote share between BJP and Congress was a little over 8%. BSP, which has consistently been polling 6-7% votes in Madhya Pradesh, could come in handy to neutralise that lead,” said a senior Congress leader.He pointed out that in the last three assembly byelections that Congress won — Chitrakoot, Mungaoli and Kolaras — were in pockets of BSP influence. “BSP did not contest these three bypolls, giving our party leadership one more reason to think of an alliance with BSP in this do-or die battle,” he added.BSP state president Pradeep Ahirwar, however, continued to be tough on the question of alliance. “Behenji (Mayawati) has announced candidates in 22 seats in the first phase. We will contest all the seats on our own and form a BSP government in the state. There is no question of an alliance with Congress,” he said.

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