How poor poll prospects can make a good Budget

  • | Monday | 11th February, 2019

Now, M K Stalin has called the 2019-2020 Tamil Nadu Budget useless.For those waiting to criticize the government, the Budget was indeed useless. Insiders say the AIADMK has reconciled to the fact that it may not win many seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. And if they succeed, EPS-OPS will find the Budget truly useless. One of the top expectations during the runup to the Budget was incentives for farmers, if not a loan waiver. ‘Useless’ is such a versatile word that it fits into virtually every context of disapproval without meaning what it means.

‘Useless’ is such a versatile word that it fits into virtually every context of disapproval without meaning what it means. My grandpa used to call us, children, useless when we plucked mangoes from the backyard before they had grown enough. Girls call their guys useless when they don’t turn up on time for a date. Now, M K Stalin has called the 2019-2020 Tamil Nadu Budget useless.For those waiting to criticize the government, the Budget was indeed useless. It didn’t propose new taxes for the opposition to attack the government. Neither did it have new coffer-crunching sops for the media to bemoan populism. It was a boringly functional Budget that sought to keep the fiscal deficit (difference between total revenue and total expenditure) at 2.56% of the GSDP. It was also bold.So, what emboldened the Edappadi K Palaniswami government to not appease the voters in an election year? Insiders say the AIADMK has reconciled to the fact that it may not win many seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. But it believes it can win a few seats when 20 Assembly constituencies have byelection (probably along with the general elections) so the government survives its term. Hence, a non-populist Budget is something the government can invest in, perhaps once more, before the 2021 Assembly polls, goes the theory.A Budget that draws a clear line between welfare measures and freebies makes sense in a state that continues to live beyond its means. The recent Global Investors Meet has promised ?3 lakh crore worth investments in the state and the tax revenue is looking up, but going by the history of the state falling short of revenue expectations and overshooting expenses, the government should match its optimism with decisive action.As for the Lok Sabha elections, the AIADMK has reasons to be low on hope. It has no choice but to ally with the BJP, and it will be lucky to contest 25 seats if the PMK, the DMDK and a couple of groups join the front.EPS and OPS cannot ignore that T T V Dhinakaran rode to victory at RK Nagar on his strident criticism of the BJP as also his campaign that the AIADMK has been reduced to the saffron party’s stooge. The BJP’s presence helps the alliance in but a few constituencies like Kanyakumari, Coimbatore and South Chennai, but in all probability the BJP will demand those seats. Yet the AIADMK will have to sail with the BJP, as rubbing Amit Shah and Narendra Modi the wrong way could leave many AIADMK leaders in the soup. It may be the first time a party is being browbeaten into an electoral alliance.While the AIADMK appears to be resigned to its fate in the Lok Sabha elections, it has to win at least nine of the 20 byelection seats to ensure longevity of the EPS government. The ruling party on paper now shows a strength of 115, but in the event of a confidence motion, three (who have identified themselves with TTV) could vote against the government and three others (independents who contested on the AIADMK symbol) could go either way.That’s where the sop-less Budget becomes more of a gamble than a gambit. One of the top expectations during the runup to the Budget was incentives for farmers, if not a loan waiver. That was not to be.Already in the grip of their seasonal love for villages, the opposition will try to exploit farmers’ sentiments. And if they succeed, EPS-OPS will find the Budget truly useless.

If You Like This Story, Support NYOOOZ

NYOOOZ SUPPORTER

NYOOOZ FRIEND

Your support to NYOOOZ will help us to continue create and publish news for and from smaller cities, which also need equal voice as much as citizens living in bigger cities have through mainstream media organizations.


Stay updated with all the Chennai Latest News headlines here. For more exclusive & live news updates from all around India, stay connected with NYOOOZ.

Related Articles