New Delhi: The novel coronavirus, as on October 30, has infected more than 4.5 crore people globally and has led to over 11 lakh deaths worldwide, since late January. Almost 60-70 per cent of the population (more than 5.5 billion people) needs to be vaccinated correctly to contain the Covid-19 pandemic.

Countries worldwide are desperately looking for a vaccine to achieve herd immunity as quickly as possible. However, the race for a Covid vaccine has stoked a debate on how much the vaccine will cost even as public health advocates including Bill Gates called for a price cap for poor countries.

THE PRICING

Prices for Covid-19 vaccines are not official yet, but early indication shows that prices may vary between Rs 450 to Rs 5,500 for double dose globally. Moderna, which is prepping for the global launch of its potential coronavirus vaccine tentatively called mRNA-1273, has pegged it between $32 and $37 (Rs 2,738) for a single dose. According to health experts, two doses of a vaccine may be better than one for attaining the desired immunogenicity. “The price of the vaccine will initially be subsidised for emergency users in many countries, including India. And after one-and-a-half years, prices will be decided by the market,” a top pharma company official told India Today on condition of anonymity.

According to sources, in India, the cost of two doses of Coronavirus vaccine could be around Rs 700-2,000 for AstraZeneca, manufactured by Serum Institute of India (SII), the world’s largest vaccine maker. But the price has not been finalised yet. The final price of the shot of the vaccine will be declared only after the license for distribution has been received.

“Currently we are talking to the highest authority in different ministries in the government. We can’t comment exactly on the price but I can say that price would be few hundred rupees,” Adar Poonawalla, CEO of SII, told India Today.

PRICE DETERMINATION

The price of Covid-19 vaccine is primarily shaped by research and development costs along with trial results. Nearly 170 vaccines are in the race, and 50 are in the clinical trials on human. Governments and super-rich have poured huge money into this race. Out of them, 10 vaccines have entered into the final testing stage in the last six months. Although final trials are not over, countries like US, UK, Canada and Russia have already secured some vaccine in advance through agreements with frontrunner producers. Drug makers are facing pressure to keep the vaccine affordable along with being profitable for the investors as well. These companies need extra funds for fast and cheap manufacturing. For this, they have opted for tie-ups with individual governments as well as international platform like World Health Organisation (WHO).

“We are actively preparing for the launch of mRNA-1273, and we have signed a number of supply agreements with governments around the world,” Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel said in a press release on Thursday.

ADVANCE AGREEMENTS

The prices of Covid-19 shots have loosely been estimated based on the advance agreements between the companies and the countries. For instance, Moderna is pitching its potential vaccine at $50-$60 for two doses. At the same time, the US deal for the Pfizer and BioNTech agreement is set at $39 for two doses, which is four times higher than the estimates for an AstraZeneca-Oxford supply agreement with the four European countries ($6 to $8 per two doses). Similarly, Johnson & Johnson, Sanofi and GSK have come in at about $20 for two doses of their potential vaccine in Europe. China’s vaccine frontrunner, Sinovac, have started selling its vaccine in selected cities at $60 for two shots under the emergency use programme.

The US government handed out more than 10 billion dollars for an advance deal with vaccine makers. The government has created a specific financial vehicle to tune the development of a vaccine with $10 billion of public funds known as “Operation Warp Speed” (OWS). The goal of OWS is to secure supplies of at least six potential Covid-19 shots in the trial phase. Under such financial arrangement, some pharma companies get a part of advance money to develop a vaccine but have primarily entered in an advance purchased agreement. For instance, Pfizer has a deal with the US to sell 100 million doses for $1.95 billion ($39 for two doses), if it develops a successful vaccine. Whereas drug maker Moderna relied on advance funding. The company is getting $483 million for its pre-clinical research and phase 1 and 2 trials, and then another $472 million to cover the cost of its phase 3 trials.

Similarly, UK has also signed an agreement with pharmaceutical firms like BioNtech-Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Valneva and GSK/Sanofi.

ACCESSIBILITY TO ALL

To make vaccines accessible to low and middle-income countries, the WHO, along with other partners, has formed a platform - Covid-19 Vaccines Global Access Facility (COVAX). This platform was launched in April by the WHO, GAVI— (the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization), and Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI). Last month, Gavi and the Gates Foundation inked a deal with SII for delivery of up to 200 million doses of vaccines of AstraZeneca and Novavax.

Around 180 countries and regions have signed COVAX initiative. However, the WHO is still struggling to attract major vaccine-manufacturing countries like the US and Russia. Currently, COVAX is supporting the development of nine vaccines. According to an estimate, COVAX is likely to buy 2 billion doses by the end of 2021. Though some countries have declared to deliver potential vaccines for their own citizens first before helping globally, research organization RAND Europe warns that vaccine nationalism will cost more. “Vaccine nationalism could lead to the unequal allocation of Covid-19 vaccines and cost the global economy up to $1.2 trillion a year in GDP terms,” a new RAND Europe study said.

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