Guwahati: The decision of the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) chief Badruddin Ajmal not to contest the Lok Sabha election in Assam from beyond three seats, has left both rivals BJP and Congress on their toes.BJP, in its campaigns, has been trying to project an ‘unholy understanding’ between the grand old party and the Muslim-majority party. It is concerned that AIUDF could be giving Congress the chance to consolidate minority votes by fielding candidates from only three seats. Congress too is making an extra effort to distance itself from AIUDF lest the saffron party takes the opportunity to consolidate Hindu votes. AIUDF had initially planned to contest from eight seats. But last week, Ajmal’s party declared it would not field candidates in the five seats it had decided to contest from earlier to avoid division of secular votes.BJP insiders say the party is trying to work out a strategy in Kaliabor, Mangaldoi, Nowgong, Tezpur, Gauhati and Silchar parliamentary constituencies where minority voters are in decisive numbers. For instance in Kaliabor, BJP has put in an all-out effort to wrest the seat from incumbent MP and former chief minister Tarun Gogoi’s son Gaurav Gogoi where he is pitted against the saffron party ally Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) candidate Moni Madhab Mahanta.In fact, top BJP leaders, including Amit Shah, kicked off their campaign from Kaliabor, where an estimated 20% of the total 17,10,939 voters are minority. In 2014, when AIUDF fielded a candidate in Kaliabor, the party garnered 2,31,295 votes, a substantial chunk of it from the minority community. Gaurav Gogoi won by 93,874 votes against BJP. With AIUDF not in the fray in Kaliabor, the seat has become a tough test for AGP, even though it is expected that NDA ally National People’s Party (NPP) candidate Abdul Aziz may spilt some minority votes.Similarly, in Mangaldoi, where BJP has fielded new face Dilip Saikia against Congress’ Rajya Sabha MP Bhubaneswar Kalita, there will also be a tough test for the saffron party. In 2014, Mangaldoi was won by BJP’s Ramen Deka by 22,884 votes against Congress’s Kirip Chaliha, whereas AIUDF garnered 74,710 votes. Mangaldoi has about 15% minority voters.By not fielding a candidate in Silchar where about 32% are minority voters, AIUDF is going to avoid a major spilt in Muslim votes. In 2014, Congress’s Sushmita Dev won by about 35,241 votes against BJP’s Kabindra Purkayastha, whereas AIUDF got 85,530 votes. In Silchar, too, NPP fielded Nazia Yasmin Mazumdar. “Now that the understanding between Congress and AIUDF is open, non-minority votes will go to BJP and its allies. People of the state will not support such an understanding,” BJP senior spokesperson Rupam Goswami said.

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