KOCHI: While the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted above-normal rainfall of 13% during the flood period in August, Kerala received 96% excess rains, which caused the significant damage to life and property, state government has informed the Kerala high court Government’s submission was in the form of an affidavit filed through senior government pleader P Narayanan in response to petitions alleging negligence by the government and seeking proper rehabilitation measures.As per the affidavit, the first long-range forecast (LRF) by the IMD issued on April 16th had predicted that the monsoon season rainfall will be 97% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus five per cent. Forecast had also suggested maximum probability for normal monsoon rainfall (96-104% of LPA) and low probability for deficient rainfall during the season, the affidavit said.LPA is the average rainfall received by the country as a whole during the south-west monsoon for a 50-year period. The rainfall received is deemed deficient if it falls below 90% of LPA and normal when it is between 96 and 104% of LPA.The IMD had issued the second stage of long range forecast or LRF for the southwest monsoon season on May 30. It was predicted in the second-stage LRF that monsoon rainfall will be 95% of LPA over south peninsula with a model error of plus or minus 8%. It was also predicted that the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 94% of LPA during August both with a model error of plus or minus 9%. It was also indicated in the second-stage LRF that the forecast probability for ‘above normal’ was 13% and ‘excess’ was only 3%, government’s affidavit said.Government said in the affidavit, “The state received an excess rains of 96% during the period from 1st to 30th August 2018, and 33% during the entire monsoon period till the end of August. It is submitted that in the 2nd stage forecast issued on 30th May 2018, the prediction was only 94% of LPA (6% less than long period average) during the month of August, while the state received 96% excess rainfall. This unpredicted excess intense rainfall spell have caused significant damage to life and property.”

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