Mamata Up Against The Wall In Nandigram, Can She Wriggle Out Or Call It Day!

  • | Sunday | 4th April, 2021

BY DN SINGH

The battle in West Bengal is virtually over. But what remains to be seen is, who. Will Mamata be able to sail through and make a hat-trick or, if loses Nandigram, she would take to the exit route.  A question that even seasoned political analysts are not able to predict. Public opinion is sharply divided and the rest is done by the media. More so the national media houses who were pitching their tents in Nandigram, did appear compulsively bent over backwards to only see the winds blowing against the Trinamool Congress.    

Many observers see so many factors those may tilt the balance on any side. When an incumbent chief minister faces a multipronged challenge, especially from the Prime Minister with all his political fire powers at Nandigram, the defender must have been cool and a well-calibrated campaign design and an able campaign manager.

Double Whammy For Mamata 

On that score, Didi has a huge disadvantage and surprisingly so, by losing Subhendu Adhikari, her protégé-turned-foe, as an able campaign manager. It was both in assembly and the Lok sabha polls in 2016 & 2019 respectively, Subhendu had proved his worth.

But this time Mamata is almost alone, immovable and banking on her nephew, Abhishek Banerjee to manage campaigns after the exit of Mukul Roy, is a big risk. In 2019 polls under Abhishek all the Lok sabha seats TMC fought for slipped from the hands of the TMC. Poll observers felt that   Mamata, who not only got provoked by the provocations by her arch rivals, the BJP, but often lost her cool in a bid to retaliate to the tirades thrown at her.  The tactics adopted by the BJP were enough to tease a person who was up against the wall, trying to defend her citadel that is shaking under an impact of an avalanche created and made multipronged to unnerve a rival who is on a defensive ferosity mode. So many factors are going to play the roles on the outcome. “The campaign, that was nothing less than any high octane one in Indian politics so far, has charged the political atmosphere where the Prime Minister had to frequent” feels Subrato Ghosh, a Kolkata-based poll analyst.

Was It Ethical For EC?
 

Not only frequented but, the PM exhibited the ferocity to the extent of doing a public rally when the polling was going on in 30 assembly seats including Nandigram, which has emerged as the new epicenter of West Bengal politics. “It is different matter as how can such an election rally can be justified at a time when in the same state the polling for some seats were through. A question that the Election Commission would better answer” said Ghosh. Peoples Pulse report has a claim which gives a huge edge to the BJP in about 160 seats while it finds Mamata in a firm footing in 70 seats only, while the Left is left with its 12 hard-core bastions. That is a survey report. Done at whose behest and at whose cost only time will reveal.  

South Bengal Crucial              

South Bengal has a maximum number of Assembly seats i.e. 126 seats in the 294 member assembly including Kolkata. Here also, BJP is seen much ahead with 65 seats, while TMC walking away with 37 seats and close contest foreseen at 24 seats. That is again as per the survey report.  Thickly populated by minority (muslim) votes, the areas such as Mushidabad, North and South Dinapur and, of course, Malda can play a decisive role to an extent. Those being the nightmarish predictions for Mamata, even in North Bengal can even be dampers for the TMC.

“ These are all surveys and still far to go. BJP is on a rampage and it can go more offensive for the remaining polls” said Arindam Chatterjee, political analyst. “It would have been more productive for Mamata Banerjee not to be so reactive to the provocations" quipped Chatterjee


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