PATNA: Initial weather assessments have ruled out the El Nino possibility at least till August, thus increasing the prospects of normal rainfall in the monsoon this year across the country, including the Gangetic plains.El Niño, a Spanish word for ‘Christ Child’, is an abnormal warming of water in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean every three to five years, which can last up to 18 months. This has been commonly associated in the past with poor rainfall in South Asia.According to Meteorological Society of India’s Patna chapter secretary P Pradhan Path Sarthy, the initial assessment by the Climate Prediction Center at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an American agency, has indicated relatively less possibility of El Nino conditions till August. This, in turn, is expected to lead to positive impact on the monsoon in the country this year.The India Meteorological Department (IMD)’s recent El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) bulletin has also indicated that La Nina conditions are expected to prevail till June 2018. La Nina is often beneficial for the monsoon, especially in the latter half.“It seems that La Nina conditions may prevail in April, May and June, 2018, and further neutral conditions (when there is neither El Nino nor La Nina) may persist in June, July and August,” said the IMD’s ENSO-IOD bulletin.Though IMD experts are not expecting above normal rainfall owing to weak La Nina after June, Parth Sarthy claimed on Tuesday the occurrence of monsoon depression might further augment the showers in monsoon.“If few monsoon depressions occur during the monsoon months of June, July, August and September, it would further increase the quantity of rainfall,” said Parth Sarthy, who is an associate professor at the Centre for Environmental Sciences, Central University of South Bihar, Patna.The IMD has also predicted equal possibility of neutral and negative IOD conditions during the monsoon this year. IOD is a system of oscillating sea surface temperatures, in which the western Indian Ocean becomes alternately warmer and then colder than its eastern part.Weather experts said a positive IOD leads to more monsoon rainfall and more active monsoon days, while negative IOD leads to less rainfall and more monsoon break days.Bihar received 936.8mm rainfall, 9% less than the respective normal of 1027.6mm in the four-month monsoon last year. The rain-bearing winds had entered Bihar through the north- eastern district of Purnia and Kishanganj on June 16, a marginal delay of six days from its normal date of June 10, and had covered the entire state by June 22.

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