Summary:
Ahmedabad, Oct 16 (PTI) Dalit voters who constitute a significant chunk in 25 of the 182 Assembly seats in Gujarat are likely to be split between the three key players in ensuing state elections, say political observers.
Of the 25 seats, 13 are reserved for the scheduled castes, and in each of the remaining 12 seats, Dalit votes are more than 10 per cent, an observer said.
In the last Assembly election, the BJP won seven of the 13 seats, while Congress won five and an independent, Jignesh Mevani, was also elected.
At eight per cent of Gujarat"s population, Dalits are not numerically dominant, and their votes are likely to get divided among the ruling BJP, opposition Congress and the new entrant Aam Aadmi Party in the upcoming Assembly elections, the observer said.
The following are the 13 seats reserved for SC candidates, along with the parties which won them in the last elections: Danilimda (Cong), Asarwa (BJP), Dasada (Cong), Rajkot Rural (BJP), Kalavad (Cong), Kodinar (Cong), Gadhada (BJP), Vadodara City (BJP), Bardoli (BJP), Kadi (BJP), Idar (BJP), Gandhidham (BJP) and Vadgam (Independent).
Dalit voters constitute more than 10 per cent in the following 12 unreserved constituencies: Amraiwadi, Bapunagar, Thakkarbapa Nagar, Jamalpur, Dholka, Patan, Chanasma, Siddhpur, Keshod, Manavadar, Vav and Abdasa.
While the BJP is confident Dalits will vote for it in the Assembly polls due this year-end, the Congress says it is paying attention to seats with 10 per cent or more Dalit population.
The BJP has won a majority of the 13 seats reserved for the scheduled castes since 1995.
In 2007 and 2012, it won 11 and 10 of these seats, respectively, while the Congress won two and three seats.
In 2017, the BJP won only seven of these 13 seats, while the Congress won five.
Mevani, who was backed by Congress, won the Vadgam seat as an independent.
Congress MLA Pravin Maru from Gadhada resigned in 2020 and joined the BJP in 2022.
BJP"s Atmaram Parmar won the byelection in the constituency.
Sociologist Gaurang Jani claimed Dalits in Gujarat are a confused community as far as political affiliation is concerned.
They are numerically not as sizable as many other communities and are divided further in three sub-castes - Vankar, Rohit and Valimki.
"They are divided among themselves, with the BJP attracting Vankar, the highest in the stratification.
They are more vocal and urban.
But Valmiki, which are mainly sanitation workers, are divided," claimed Jani, a retired professor at the Gujarat University.
The presence of three political parties in the fray will lead to a division of the Dalit votes, he said.