Summary:
It was predicted in the second-stage LRF that monsoon rainfall will be 95% of LPA over south peninsula with a model error of plus or minus 8%. This unpredicted excess intense rainfall spell have caused significant damage to life and property.” It is submitted that in the 2nd stage forecast issued on 30th May 2018, the prediction was only 94% of LPA (6% less than long period average) during the month of August, while the state received 96% excess rainfall. It was also predicted that the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 94% of LPA during August both with a model error of plus or minus 9%. Forecast had also suggested maximum probability for normal monsoon rainfall (96-104% of LPA) and low probability for deficient rainfall during the season, the affidavit said.LPA is the average rainfall received by the country as a whole during the south-west monsoon for a 50-year period..