Summary:
The next few weeks will tell us if the BJP in West Bengal can match Banerjee, or it would rather prepare the ground for politics beyond May 2.
The polling starts from 27th of March and will continue in eight phases till 29th April and the counting of votes on 2nd of May.
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West Bengal remains one of the most politically-violent states in India.
In recent years, pre-poll violence has been somewhat muted in the Lok Sabha and assembly polls because of the presence of central paramilitary forces in conducting elections.
It is, however, quite rampant in panchayat elections where the law and order are in the hands of the police.
In the 2018 panchayat polls, 34 percent of the seats went uncontested in favor of the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) as political workers from other parties did not, rather could not, file nominations.
Even in assembly and Lok Sabha polls, central forces cannot always prevent violence in remote areas.
Crucially, there can be little guarantee against post-poll violence once the central forces leave the scene.
This forms the backdrop of the forthcoming Bengal assembly polls.
Any challenger in West Bengal needs muscle power to match the cadre strength of the ruling party.
The challenger should be able to instill confidence among those likely to vote for its candidates that the party will be able to form the government — the only guarantee against reprisals in post-poll violence.
The TMC did it successfully against the ruling Communist Party of India (Marxist) from the panchayat elections in 2008, and eventually winning the 2011 assembly polls, notably with the support of Maoist groups.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s aggressive street politics since 2018 in the state, it`s filling its ranks with former Left cadre, it`s good showing in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and poaching of key Trinamool Congress leaders, particularly Suvendu Adhikari, had bolstered its claim that there would be on May 2, the day of counting of votes, asol poribortan (real change), in West Bengal.
But TMC chief Mamata Banerjee has fought back.
First, she took the battle deep within the rival camp by deciding to contest only from the Nandigram seat against her competitive lieutenant Suvendu Adhikari.
If Adhikari was expected to influence 110-seats in and around Purba Medinipur district, Banerjee has let it be known she will match him move for move, protect her turf in the region as the Nandigram movement of 2007 had helped catapult her to the chief ministerial chair, and not allow any exodus of workers from the TMC to the BJP.
Next, whatever the truth about the cause of her injury, it is surely to the BJP’s misfortune that she has fractured her foot while campaigning and blamed it on them.