Summary:
India neither wants a war, nor can it afford one.
India needs to live in peace, and focus on its massive developmental challenges.
But often geopolitics throws up challenges which a State has to confront.
India will have to learn to manage China better, and it won’t always be a smooth ride.
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India neither wants a war, nor can it afford one.
India needs to live in peace, and focus on its massive developmental challenges.
But often geopolitics throws up challenges which a State has to confront.
India will have to learn to manage China better, and it won’t always be a smooth ride.
The first scenario is that China understands the message, calculates that limited acquisition of territory in eastern Ladakh is not worth alienating India entirely, pulls back, and postpones the dispute for another day — India, in turn, also subsequently de-escalates, and while the relationship will never go back to a pre-Ladakh 2020 normal, there is renewed dialogue over other issues to indicate the restoration of normalcy.
The second possibility is that China decides that this is a matter of prestige and national security, it is the moment to “show India its place” and exercise dominance, digs its heels in, continues to attempt intrusions into Indian territory, and the stalemate continues through the long winter, with the possibility of an escalation.
India has to wait and watch what China does on the ground now, while remaining alert and pre-empting any aggressive moves.
But irrespective of what happens in eastern Ladakh, it is clear that managing China will now require a different toolkit.