Summary:
Lucknow: Have states been testing enough to curb the spread of the second wave of Covid-19 in India? An HT analysis suggests that while current positivity rates are high enough across states to require increased testing, a low positivity rate earlier, or when it comes in the future, may not always be a wholesome indicator of adequate testing (not unless it comes after a long plateau or a gradual decline).
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Lucknow: Have states been testing enough to curb the spread of the second wave of Covid-19 in India? An HT analysis suggests that while current positivity rates are high enough across states to require increased testing, a low positivity rate earlier, or when it comes in the future, may not always be a wholesome indicator of adequate testing (not unless it comes after a long plateau or a gradual decline).
The World Health Organisation (WHO) considers a prolonged positivity rate of under 5% to be the threshold at which the Covid-19 infections in an area can be said to be under control.
No major state in India had a positivity rate of 5% or less on average in the week ending May 4.
This underlines the need for all states to test more.
However, four weeks ago, five of India’s 19 major states had an average positivity rate less than 5%.
These were — in increasing order of positivity rates — Assam, Telangana, Bihar, Gujarat and Odisha.
The state that came next was Uttar Pradesh, with a positivity rate of 5.8%.
This is at odds with anecdotal reports from the state at the time that spoke of people finding it difficult to get tested.