Summary:
The very severe cyclonic storm Mekunu which recently developed over the western parts of the country is unlikely to hamper the monsoon current, as it is now quite far from the Indian coast. PUNE: India Meteorological Department’s weather models indicate that the monsoon is on course for a rapid onset in the next two weeks.These models, which had earlier indicated a 'before time' onset over Kerala., now show that the monsoon will make a landfall over Kerala soon and move fast to the other parts of the country (except northwest India), including central India and Maharashtra, by June 14.On Friday, the southwest monsoon advanced into south Andaman Sea , some parts of south Bay of Bengal and the Nicobar Islands The monsoon normally reaches Pune by June 8 and Mumbai by June 10.Sources said the weather models are accurate and bias corrected, indicating a fairly precise picture up to two weeks from the initial forecast date. However, cyclones Sagar and Mekunu did delay the progress of the monsoon over Andaman.Development and strengthening of two systems almost simultaneously over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal will not only aid the monsoon’s onset over Kerala, but push the monsoon current northwards.These weather systems are an off-shore vortex that may develop off the Kerala coast around Sunday and move northwards along the west coast between May 29 and June 2 and a low pressure area that may develop over east central Bay of Bengal and move northwards between May 28 and May 31.Good rainfall activity is likely over parts of central India, including Maharashtra, after May 31 till June 6 and during the first half of June.Weather experts said the fast progress could be because of the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal branches of the monsoon seeming active..