Summary:
After a study by Surat NCHS, it is predicted that around 20,000 children (under 15 years of age) could be infected with coronavirus if the third wave strikes.
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After a study by Surat NCHS, it is predicted that around 20,000 children (under 15 years of age) could be infected with coronavirus if the third wave strikes.
The estimates have been drawn based on elaborate calculations involving the results of RT-PCR, HRCT and rapid antigen tests conducted in the government hospitals and private laboratories in the first and second wave of Covid-19.
The study was undertaken after observations that a majority of mothers only in the families of school-going children had tested positive before the second wave peaked.
According to the study done by NCH’s Preventive and Social Medicine department, around 17,600 to 20,000 children in the city may get infected out of the 88,000 to one lakh cases estimated in the third wave.
Of these, around 2,000 will require hospitalization and 200 of need treatment intensive care units (ICU), the study indicates.
“The predictions are only for preparations and no one can tell exactly what will happen if a third wave comes.
More infections are feared among the young population since they are not vaccinated,” said JK Kosambiya, professor and head department of PSM.
The department was closely monitoring both the waves and based on its daily findings they made predictions and projections for the next few days.
The team of 50 including teachers and doctors advised health officials to expand the infrastructure during the past few months.
“From the RT-PCR, HRCT and antigen test results, we found that 20% of under-15 will be infected if cases touch one lakh in the third wave.
NCHS and SMIMER have already made preparations to manage young patients,” Kosambiya added.
“Of the total cases in the second wave, 5.4% children had tested positive in the RT-PCR test conducted in government hospitals.
This is higher compared to the first wave and if the trend continues, more children will get infected.
If we consider the results of HRCT, antigen test and RT-PCR testing in private laboratories, 20 % children were infected, but majority of them recovered without medication,” he added.
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