In April-May 2014, the voters in Gujarat had intense emotions attached with the then Chief Minister Narendra Modi, and at the same time, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) also succeeded to put its finger on the right pulse by associating people's impulsion to see a Gujarati leader becoming the PM. The results of polls were at par with the expectations of the leader Modi, and Congress could not even open its account in the state. Cut to March 2019, the same party could not score even a century in the Assembly polls held 15 months back in 2017, even though Modi-Shah duo remained totally focused over the home state's polls. The emotional wave for Narendra Modi changed the direction in Gujarat and voters were under the intense influence of young leaders like Hardik Patel and Alpesh Thakor who ran the agitations against BJP government for their communities, albeit the agendas were different. Both the leaders, directly or indirectly, remained with Congress and the party won over 77 seats in the Assembly polls. But the story does not stop here. The Congress party had to face many embarrassments after the polls as some of its legislators defected to the BJP. It was considered a masterstroke by the strategist and expert in social engineering, the BJP chief Amit Shah. He convinced Congress' influential OBC leaders like Kunvarji Bavaliya and Javahar Chawda who became the ministers in CM Vijay Rupani's cabinet. Thus, to an extent, BJP settled the score against the loss sustained in 2017 polls. This is also a strategy of BJP to recover the loss of votes from the OBC community in the state. The BJP in Gujarat got all 26 seats in the last Lok Sabha polls that were held in 2014, and the clean sweep by the saffron party was only because of Modi wave that prevailed in that times. The situation is bit different this time as the BJP's vote bank has now divided into different communities and the party has been trying hard to keep the flock intact. In short, the polls in Gujarat will be held, won or lost on community card. Congress kicks off campaign from Gujarat The opposition party Congress also seems to be focused on Gujarat as it is the home state of Modi-Shah duo. This could also be the reason for the party's campaign launching from Gujarat as the first ever poll rally after the announcement of elections was held in the state's capital Gandhinagar. An entire array of top-brass from Congress including president Rahul Gandhi and general secretary Priyanka Gandhi addressed the voters in the state during this rally. The Congress party has been trying to appeal the voters of Gujarat on the issues like the agrarian crisis, farmers' debt, unemployment, GST and demonetisation. These are the same issues that the party raised during Gujarat polls too and could help Congress win some more seats. However, the party was not able to form the government in the state as the urban voters remained with the incumbent BJP. BJP suspects scoring 26-0 this time The BJP leaders in Gujarat have been given the target of winning all 26 seats in Gujarat by their party supremos but the state leaders also have categorised five seats as weak seats. The BJP, therefore, is very cautious while selecting the candidates on these seats so as the party does not lose the score on a silly point. Amreli, Anand, Banaskantha, Junagadh and Patan are the seats where the agrarian crisis or community card will play the major role and the party is putting extra efforts on these seats. Defection before polls The Congress party in Gujarat faced a major jolt just before the Lok Sabha polls as five MLAs defected to BJP. The saffron party also tried to defect Alpesh Thakor and three of his colleagues in Assembly but things did not materialise. There is yet one more possibility that heavyweight OBC leader and Limbdi MLA Somabhai Koli Patel could switch his loyalty for Lok Sabha ticket from Surendranagar seat and BJP leaders are reportedly in contact with him. These defections can prove lethal on the morale of Congress workers in the state. 'Vikas' mantra of BJP The BJP has adopted the same agenda for the campaign in these polls and that is 'Vikas' (development). The party has been claiming to have succeeded in changing lives of poor people in last five years through many of the central government schemes such as Ujjvala Yojana, Ujala, PM JAY, pension scheme, Kisan Sanman Nidhi, PM Fasal Bima Yojana, sanitation campaign and others. The party in Gujarat is also presenting the rosy picture before the voters by showcasing PM Narendra Modi-led government's support to Gujarat by giving permission for fitting piers on Sardar Sarovar Dam in fifteen days of taking charge at Center, Bullet Train Project, AIMS in Gujarat, international airports in Rajkot and Surat, metro rails in Ahmedabad and Surat, world's tallest Statue of Unity and many others. Community factor Gujarat's politics was dominated by the Patel community before the rise of Narendra Modi and the influence of the Patidar or Patels was more in BJP as they remained loyal to the party. However, Modi gave equal importance to OBC communities in the state by giving them equal representation in the party and his government. This was his strategy to weaken the base of Congress in Gujarat as OBC community was the vote bank for Congress in Gujarat. Patel community, however, showed a swing in the mood and their political tending remained with Congress under the influence of quota agitation by Hardik Patel. The BJP, however, has managed to regain the confidence of Patidar voters with the formula of announcement of Economically Backward Class(EBC) quota in government jobs and education announced by PM Narendra Modi, and EBC commission established by Gujarat government. Two major OBC communities Koli in Saurashtra and South Gujarat and Thakor in North Gujarat are the key factors that will decide the fate of both the parties in the state. The community showers vote on the candidate who is one of them, and therefore the cherry-picking exercise in candidate selection for both the parties will remain crucial here. Hardik-Alpesh-Jignesh with Cong The community leaders like Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani are with opposition party Congress. It is likely that all these three may contest the polls from Gujarat on Congress' ticket. Congress may play the trump card of these three leaders to woo the voters from their communities. It is, however, up to voters of Gujarat who have the nature to keep the cards close to their chest giving no clue to political parties. Internal clash in Congress Those MLAs who left Congress recently and those who were to leave (like Alpesh Thakor) complained internal clash in Gujarat Congress. This is the issue that Congress in Gujarat has been facing since they were out of the power in the state. Many leaders and few workers in the party are again a challenge and internal rift among the leaders have divided the entire party into different factions. Congress' loss in Gujarat is also because of the same reason and that would prevail in Lok Sabha polls again. The same may become more intense when the party would give the mandate to a particular candidate disappointing others from a rival faction within the party. All is not well in BJP too It is not like there is no voice of retaliation on BJP. Many of the leaders faced a great disappointment when defecting Congress MLAs were made ministers within a few hours of joining BJP. The party leaders expressed their disagreement before the state leadership in different ways. These dissidents may throw a challenge to party during Lok Sabha polls but the value of self-discipline that their leader Narendra Modi has inculcated in them through different ways and that would not let them cross the party line.

Stay updated with all the Ahmedabad Latest News headlines here. For more exclusive & live news updates from all around India, stay connected with NYOOOZ.