Mumbai: India is in the midst of a second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. Considering the duration from the present level of daily new cases to the peak India saw last year, the country is expected to reach the high in the second half of April. The second wave, which could last until the end of May, could see an addition of 25 lakh cases if trends till March 23 are taken into consideration.

These projections are part of findings of a State Bank of India (SBI) research report titled ‘The second wave of infections: The beginning of the end’ by Chief Economic Advisor Soumya Kanti Ghosh. In the report, Ghosh assessed that the duration of the second Covi-19 wave might last up to 100 days starting from Feb 15, while he added that vaccination is a more effective way than lockdown to beat the pandemic. “Though global Covid-19 experience shows the second wave much higher in intensity than the first wave, presence of vaccine makes the difference currently. But India will be able to manage the situation better,” the report said.

India reported 53,476 cases in a day on March 25, the highest since November 6, 2020 -- Maharashtra and Punjab being the worst-affected states.) The daily spike in coronavirus cases during the peak in the second wave could be much higher than last year, the report warns as it cites France which saw the peak of daily cases around 11.5 times more than the first wave. The only silver lining this time, according to the report, is the availability of vaccines against Covid-19.

FINDINGS OF THE REPORT?

The report argued that if one considers the number of days taken to reach the current level from the lowest level of daily new cases witnessed on February 21, the time it took for the second Covid-19 wave to hit India is similar to what happened in the first wave. “However, the difference lies in the speed of spread of infection in states like Gujarat, MP, Maharashtra, Punjab and Chhattisgarh, where the cases have increased at a much faster pace during the current second wave,” the report stated.

Considering the number of days from the current level of daily new cases to the peak level during the first wave, India might reach the peak in the second half of April, the report says and adds that the entire duration of the second wave might last up to 100 days counted (from Feb 15).

DISTRICT-WISE ANALYSIS

A district-wise analysis in the report revealed that cases have again started rising in the top 15 districts of India, mostly urban, while the spread in rural districts is almost stable. It says that cases are largely localised and concentrated and while Rajasthan, Gujarat, Kerala, Uttarakhand, Haryana have vaccinated more than 20 per cent of their elderly population, other states with a higher elderly population (>60 years) like Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and West Bengal have vaccinated a lesser percentage. The report points out that Kerala had the maximum number of worst-affected districts in January 2021. However, all districts in this top-10 list are now rural districts of Maharashtra.

‘VACCINATE THOSE ABOVE 45 IN 4 MONTHS’

Recommending a strong push to the vaccination programme, the report says, “If the daily vaccine inoculation increases to 40-45 lakh from the current maximum level of 34 lakh, then we can vaccinate our population above 45 years in four months from now.” The SBI report also proposes restrictions to prevent the spread of Covid-19. “Air travel has slowly inched towards the level it was at...However, a plethora of new variants emerging still make a case for being wary about the overall recovery in air travel,” the report noted.

The SBI reports also voiced opposition to lockdown. “Localised lockdowns have not resulted in controlling the spread of infection as visible in states like Maharashtra and Punjab.”

Daily new cases and death rate continue to rise even after lockdown or restrictions are imposed. (Table source:SBI)
Based on analyses of data, the report said the cases and death rate both seem to be unaffected with lockdown or restrictions imposed, as is clearly visible in the case of many states and even the districts, except for Amravati show that daily new cases and death rate both continue to rise even after lockdown or restrictions are imposed.”

Building a case against the re-imposition of severe restrictions, Ghosh said in the report, “The second wave occurred only after restrictions imposed in the wake of the first wave were relaxed. If highly effective NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions) are put in place early in the epidemic, and these result in a smaller epidemic, then a large proportion of the population will remain susceptible to the renewed spread of the virus once interventions are relaxed.” The report added that in terms of ‘injection-to-infection ratio’, Israel, UK and Chile were doing better than India. However, the pace of vaccination/hundred population in India was much higher compared to other countries, it noted.

The study also analysed the existing rate, the required rate and the constraints of vaccine production. Ghosh contended that going by the health infrastructure, India has the capacity to increase the daily doses to around 1 crore per day from the current 34 lakh. The daily production capacity of Covishield and Covaxin is around 52 lakh per day and along with the export of vaccines, the report creates a balance between the availability and quantum of jabs per day.

“If more people are willing to take vaccines and with the current production capacity, the daily vaccine inoculation can be increased to 40-45 lakh from the current maximum level of 34 lakh. Then people above 45 years of age can be vaccinated in four months and the entire population in a year and nine months.”

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