Nagpur: Even if the country achieves air quality goals set by the government in the National Clean Air Programme (NCAP), cities with the most dangerous air will continue to choke on pollution levels two-to-three times more than the safe limit, reveals analysis of the existing data. To achieve the desired target, the regional action plans will need to be on the lines of what China did in Beijing to bring down pollution levels by 35% in five years.Under NCAP, which was released by the ministry of environment, forests and climate change (MoEFCC) on Thursday, the Centre aims to reduce air pollution by 20-30% in the next five years, taking 2017 as the base year. Yet, calculations of major polluting cities in India show that both particulate matter (PM) 10 and 2.5 will be more than the permissible limit set by the ministry and as much as eight times worse than the World Health Organization’s (WHO) safe limit.As per the 2017 data of Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB), the PM10 annual average of nine monitoring stations in Delhi was around 241 micrograms per cubic meters (mpcm). Assuming a 30% decline, the PM10 level will come down to almost 169 mpcm. This is nearly three times more than the government’s and eight times more than WHO’s set limit.Mumbai was recently ranked as world’s fourth most polluted megacity by WHO with its air quality being worse than Beijing. In 2017, the city recorded an annual PM10 average of 116.5 mpcm at eight stations. Even after a 30% decline in this figure, the pollutant’s level will still be almost 1.5 and 4 times more than the ministry and WHO’s standards, respectively.A 30% cutback in Varanasi’s PM10 levels would still keep its level three times more than the country’s safe limit. Similarly, Lucknow’s PM10 levels will be almost three times, Kolkata’s two times and Khurja’s 2.5 times more than the limit.The aftermath for PM2.5 is equally smoggy. After falling by 30%, its level in Delhi will be 71 mpcm – almost double the ministry’s set limit and seven times more than WHO’s. In Agra and Lucknow, the reduction will result in levels being almost double while that of Varansi and Khurja’s three times more than government standards.Data from Beijing Municipal Environmental Monitoring Center shows that between 2013-18, the city reduced its PM10 levels by nearly 30% and that of PM2.5 by almost 43%. Some reports state that between 2013-17, PM2.5 concentration in Beijing dropped from 90 to 58 mpcm, against the set target of 60. PM10 levels during the same period fell by 22.7%, more than double of the government’s 10% target.Experts feel that to emulate Beijing’s actions in fulfilling the target, India will have to strengthen NCAP. “In China, strong emission standards for power plants and industries, reduced coal consumption and strengthened enforcement of regulation achieved nearly 30% reduction in PM2.5 levels in just four years. Key learnings for India include addressing pollution on regional level, investment in clean energy solutions and reducing emissions from all crucial emitting sectors,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at Greenpeace Global Air Pollution Unit.Reports further show that while coal consumption in China doubled in a decade before 2013, it declined to 3.8 billion tonnes (BT) in 2017 from 4.2 BT. In India, coal consumption rose from 447.8 metric tonne (MT) in 2012-13 to 605.9 MT in 2017-18.In China, where around 70% of coal use is for power generating and industrial boilers, elimination of coal-fired boilers made a significant impact on emissions, states a report. “From 2013-17, Beijing eliminated and retrofitted coal-fired boilers of total capacity 39,000 tonne per hour, reducing coal use by nearly 9 million tons,” it adds.India draws nearly 79% of its power needs from coal. “As NCAP mentions phasing out old coal plants, we hope that decisions like building coal plants in polluted geographies like Khurja will be taken back,” said Sunil Dahiya, senior campaigner at Greenpeace India.Another key element present in Beijing’s action plan but missing in NCAP is “severe punishments for violations” which included imprisonment. “To be an effective implementable plan, NCAP should have strong legal backing, sector-wise targets and specific targets for cities,” said Dahiya.TOP POLLUTING CITIESPM 10City-------2017 AA---------RA ------ >PLDelhi-------- 240.44----------------------------- 168.30------------------------- 3 timesMumbai---- 116.5-------------------------------- 82------------------------------- 1.5 timesVaranasi-----243.8-------------------------------171------------------------------- 3 timesLucknow---- 246--------------------------------- 172.2----------------------------- 3 timesKolkata----- 119.57------------------------------ 83.7------------------------------- 1.5 times(PM 10 values are in micrograms per cubic meters; AA: annual average; RA: Avg after 30% reduction; >PL: more than permissible limit)IN BEIJING’S STEPS: WHAT INDIA NEEDS- Stricter emission standards and punishments for violations- Sector-wise targets for emission reduction- Shutting down outdated coal-fired units- Replacing coal with clean energy- Specific targets to reduce coal consumption in power sector- Achieving ultra-low emissions in existing thermal power plants- Clear accountability

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