Nagpur: Among the Asian countries, India stands to gain the most if it takes care of the toxic air and pre-mature deaths resulting out of it. According to international researchers, the potential benefits can be as high as almost Rs 100 lakh crores three decades later.While the recently released National Clean Air Programme (NCAP) of the Union environment ministry was flayed for its weak mandate and inadequacy, a recent scientific study states that effective mitigation measures in India can bring potential benefits to the extent of 17-24% of country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is much higher than China’s estimated gains of 1.5-7% of its GDP for similar measures. However, if the country fails in effective mitigation, its air quality will be “severely worse” than China’s in 2050.Titled ‘Co-benefits of climate mitigation on air quality and human health in Asian countries’, the study was carried out by eight researchers based in China and Japan who evaluated the benefits that climate change mitigation can have on ambient air quality and human health.World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that indoor and outdoor air pollution in the country causes nearly 5 lakh and 1.2 lakh pre-mature deaths respectively every year. The study warns that by 2050, India’s mortality rate will rise by 25% if the policymakers fail to invest in mitigation measures and consider health impacts of air pollution on the country’s economy.On the other hand, reducing pre-mature deaths and other health implications of air pollution can benefit the country by almost Rs 100 lakh crore in 2050. While this amount is estimated to be 3% of the GDP, it will be around eight times the amount country will have to spend on mitigation measures. “Policymakers should not hesitate when it comes to mitigation. It is not a pure burden for developing countries as the benefits may lie in other areas,” the study stated, adding that the total medical expenditure related to air pollution in India was nearly Rs 25,000 crore in 2005.Senior campaigner of Greenpeace India Sunil Dahiya explains, “The environment ministry needs to factor in the co-benefits of reducing our fossil fuel footprint and should show this in urgency during formulation and financial allocations for programmes like NCAP. The mitigation cost will only be a small fraction of the benefits India can achieve through aggressively moving towards 1.5 degree scenario, as the health cost burden by air pollution on the Indian economy is huge.”Keeping 2005 as the base year, international researchers stated that in 2050, the annual average PM2.5 levels in Northern India will increase by 50 micrograms per cubic meter (mpcm) in absence of mitigation. WHO considers 10 mpcm as a “safe” PM 2.5 annual mean. As per the organization’s latest ambient air pollution data, Delhi’s annual mean of PM2.5 was 143 mpcm in 2016. In most part of the northern India, the average was above 100 mpcm which is highly dangerous. “Countries like India need to take early action,” the report added.NCAP has proposed a national level target of 20-30% reduction of particulate matter (PM) 2.5 and 10 levels by 2024, taking 2017 as the base year for comparison. “The programme needs to be more ambitious and stringent. The current target is weak and lower than what was achieved in Beijing and Seoul. We need to be more ambitious,” said Rajendra Shende, chairman of TERRE policy centre.

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