Ravi Nanjundiah Ravi Nanjundiah How has ‘Pratyush’, India’s first and largest High Performance Computing (HPC) system, recently installed at IITM, been functioning ? The new system that was installed in January is working to its fullest capacity. This facility has achieved a healthy functional target in a span of just two months, and it is being very well utilised for weather and climate modelling purposes. Many new applications are being planned with the use of Pratyush, some of which will be in operation later this year. One of the major applications that will help improve our forecasts will be the upgradation of model resolution using the latest Global Forecast System (GFS). It will soon be possible to operate 21 such systems running simultaneously, and multiple sets of initial conditions will be fed into the models. The 21 sets of different forecast ensembles are presently undergoing computational tests, during which its performance and accuracy, with respect to forecasts of recent years, will be compared with observations. How will this advanced computation facility help give more accurate weather forecasts? Presently, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) uses one GFS, having a 12-kilometre resolution, to issue all kinds of forecasts, like long-range forecasts, extended-range forecasts and day-to-day forecasts. This means that it has some limitations in creating various possible atmospheric scenarios to test at the time of making predictions. Once this newly-developed 21-set ensemble is made operational, 21 multiple possible weather scenarios can be constructed. Thus, an overall improved picture of atmospheric conditions will be available. Since the initial conditions that are provided to the weather models are not always accurate, one of the reasons being fewer observations obtained from the oceans, the rate of uncertainty could be high, resulting in errors at the time of issuance of forecasts. All initial conditions will now be put together into an ensemble prediction system. After getting satisfactory results, it will later be handed over to the IMD for operational purposes. In fact, India could be the second country, after the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), in the world to have such a state-of-the-art technology ensemble at this resolution. What is the progress of the National Monsoon Mission in its second phase? The National Monsoon Mission is completely devoted to identifying areas where the Indian weather models, used for forecasts, can be designed and improved upon, mainly to suit Indian requirements. Most of the current models used across the world have some shortcomings, and one of the commonly accepted ones is the limited knowledge on the close links between clouds and rainfall. Being an active and ongoing field of research, several studies, involving both Indian and international universities and research institutions, are proposed in the field of cloud parameterisation. Some of the findings from Phase I of the mission has been incorporated and will be further investigated in this phase. They include developing better data assimilation methods (which would provide better initial conditions) that will be applied in weather modelling. Additionally, it will comprise improvement of the numerical methods and their designs used in modelling. Every weather model shows a strong relationship between the Indian Monsoon and El Nino events. The interactions are an important factor in determining the strength of the Indian Monsoon. But, at present, the representation of the tele-connections from the Indian Ocean with our monsoon has not been fully established. So, we plan to improve this area of study of relationship between the oceans and the monsoon during this phase of the mission. Yet another key application being seriously considered under this mission is the upgradation in forecasts meant for agriculture purposes. We are hoping to come up with crop or area-specific forecasts, so that they can be used in the most tangible manner. Apart from this, with the rising demand in renewable energy, we will also be working in wind and solar energy sectors along with water resource management. After a gap of two years, the cloud-seeding experiments are expected to resume this year. What are the proposed plans? The radar, imported from Germany last year, has been installed in Solapur, a rain-shadow region in Maharashtra, that has been identified for a study in the next three years. There will be two aircraft, one to be used for cloud seeding purposes, and the other for taking observations. Both will fly in tandem over a specific region once a potential cloud has been identified. The main objective for carrying out this experiment is to come up with a protocol and system to carry out cloud seeding activities in the future. On many occasions, arbitrary experiments are initiated without zeroing down on the desired clouds, where no proper radar inputs are considered, and in such cases, the efficacy of results remain limited. The three-year programme will not only concentrate on the seeding of clouds at higher atmospheric levels, but also select warm clouds that generally form at lower atmospheric levels. For all the latest Pune News, download Indian Express App

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