This state has 20 fold increase in positive Covid cases

  • | Tuesday | 6th April, 2021

The resurgence has also brought mutations into the state. As many as 17 positive Covid-19 samples in Andhra Pradesh were found carrying the UK (B.1.1.7) strain, while the South African (B.1.351) lineage was detected in three samples

Till the third week of February, a few weeks into the roll-out of the vaccination drive, there were hardly 500 active Covid-19 cases in Andhra Pradesh, with only 300 patients requiring hospitalisation. The officials were even de-notified over 200 designated Covid hospitals to facilitate them to resume regular medical services.

But within a month after this presumed plateauing, the number of active Covid-19 cases have now zoomed past the 10,000-mark. What is more concerning is the non-linear and exponential growth in virus transmission rates, despite similar testing numbers in the last few weeks.

From an average 0.25% case positivity rate in February, the positivity rate ascended to 5.6% on April 4, which is almost a 20-fold increase. The state accumulated just 2,080 cases in February, averaging 75 cases a day. But since the beginning of April, the state has recorded an average of 1,500 cases a day, which is again a 20-fold increase in daily case numbers.

Fortunately, the fatality rate has remained stable at 0.8% for the last several months, which indicates either improved medical management over months or the virus becoming virulent. The state health department, meanwhile, is planning to conduct a sero survey in the second week of April.

The early signs of resurgence first emanated from Chittoor district, which shares its borders with Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, in the first week of March. Consequently, Krishna, Guntur, Visakhapatnam and Nellore districts also witnessed a sharp uptick in daily cases.

The resurgence has also brought mutations into the state. As many as 17 positive Covid-19 samples in Andhra Pradesh were found carrying the UK (B.1.1.7) strain, while the South African (B.1.351) lineage was detected in three samples.

Based on the statistics of other countries, the subsequent waves in the US and Russia came almost immediately after the daily new cases from the previous wave stopped dropping. In the case of Italy and the UK, there was a longer gap, about five to seven months, between the first and second wave peak.

AP Covid-19 nodal officer Dr K Rambabu said the vaccination drive in the state has been stepped up to contain the pandemic. “The reach would be further increased in the next few days. The situation is a little alarming in districts like Chittoor, Guntur, Krishna and Visakhapatnam,” he said.


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