A slew of Bollywood, Hollywood, and regional language films scheduled for release in cinemas could help the Indian box office notch up collections of up to Rs2,000 crore in 2021, according to trade experts.

Despite having lost an entire quarter and total revenue seen is less than half of the Rs5,000 crore business garnered in 2019, pent-up demand and the backlog of big-ticket films hitting screens April onwards should ensure some recovery for the ailing industry.

 “The best benchmark for us to go by at this point is the business in malls, restaurants and entertainment zones that have recovered quite well which proves that people want to step out and that we’re only blockbuster away from achieving the same for movie theatres," Devang Sampat, deputy chief executive officer, Cinepolis India said.

Starting with horror comedy Roohi on 11 March, Bollywood has a big line-up of films slated for cinemas, including multiple films on certain weekends, besides English and vernacular language offerings, dubbed in Hindi.

As of now, sports drama ’83 will clash with horror film The Conjuring 3 in June, while John Abraham’s Attack and Allu Arjun’s Pushpa will both arrive on the Independence Day weekend. While theatres are confident of providing adequate showcasing to all films, critics caution that the economy is not the same anymore - people have lost jobs, suffered pay cuts and sentiments are low.

“The entire industry is banking on these releases. We are not looking at profits at the moment. The current priority is to get our audiences back to cinemas, entertain them, and win their faith and trust for ensuring that they resume their usual buyer behaviour," said Rajender Singh Jyala, chief programming officer at INOX Leisure Ltd, admitting that average number of shows will be lower than pre-covid.

Cinemas will also follow strict sanitisation and disinfecting procedures between shows, ensuring staggered entry and exit of viewers and that intermissions of different auditoriums do not clash.

Atul Mohan, editor of trade magazine Complete Cinema, said it will be crucial for cinemas to come up with reasonable ticket pricing at this point, especially depending on the scale of the film and the interest it garners. Of late, films not featuring big stars have been priced up to Rs300.

To be sure, many trade experts point to a possible slow start.

An analyst, on condition of anonymity, said a Rs50 crore box office could be the new Rs100 crore given that people will only gradually trickle in. Further, while release dates have been announced, not many filmmakers are yet out with songs, trailers or other promotional material, signalling lack of confidence.

Rising cases in states like Maharashtra are a source of anxiety too. Contributing a huge chunk to the business of Hindi films, curbs or curfews in the state could spell doom for Bollywood. However, cinemas are confident based on the numbers that films like Master has thrown up in the south.

“If the film is good, it’ll work as we have seen through houseful shows for Master and some Telugu films recently. A film that isn’t up to the mark, on the other hand, may have made Rs. 100 crore pre-covid but would suffer now," Kunal Sawhney, senior vice-president at Carnival Cinemas said.

The good thing is people are more vigilant now, more than ever before, and the government is firm on protocols too. With families visiting theatres with kids for recent offerings like Tom and Jerry, there is a sense of these norms and a certain amount of restraint, becoming part and parcel of our lives, post covid.

“Post March, there should be no looking back for cinemas," Sawhney added.