PATNA: The forecast of subdued rainfall in most parts of the country in the last leg of four-month monsoon season seems to be holding true as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday stated that except northeastern states and sub-Himalayan West Bengal , rest of the country is likely to receive subdued rainfall over the next three days.The subdued rainfall has been attributed to position of the trough line close to the foothills of the Himalayas. The all-India weather bulletin issued by the IMD on Thursday morning stated that monsoon trough continues to run close to foothills of the Himalayas and is likely to remain so during the next 48 hours.The IMD, in its fortnightly weather bulletin issued in the last week of August, had stated that “there is possibility of development of weak El Niño conditions in the last leg of the monsoon or thereafter”. This was expected to weaken the monsoon rainfall in the country from the second week of September.El Niño, a Spanish word for ‘Christ Child’, is an abnormal warming of water in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, which has been commonly associated in the past with poor rainfall in South Asia.Weather experts from private weather agency Skymetweather too claimed that there were bleak chances of recovery in monsoon rainfall over the next few days. “No significant change is expected in the prevailing weather conditions. Barring some pockets of East and Northeast India, most parts of the country would see scanty rainfall only during the next few days. We are afraid that this may push the countrywide deficiency to 10%,” AVM G P Sharma, president-meteorology, Skymet Weather, said on Thursday.Patna Meteorological Centre also reported only light to moderate rainfall at a few places over north Bihar and light rainfall at one or two places in south Bihar on Thursday.A district-wise weather bulletin issued by Patna Meteorological Centre stated that only light rainfall was expected at one or two places in all 38 districts in the state till September 17. Moreover, no warning of heavy rainfall has been issued for the next four days.As per the IMD, Bihar is facing 19% monsoon rainfall deficiency as on date. Only two districts – Buxar (34%) and Banka (26%) – have shown surplus (+20% higher) monsoon rainfall this year.

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