The middle class in India, often hailed as the driving force behind the country`s economic growth and development, plays a significant role in shaping political outcomes. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Prime Minister  Narendra Modi, have garnered substantial support from the middle class in recent years. This support can be attributed to various factors, including the party`s governance record, economic policies, and its ability to connect with the aspirations of the middle class. Additionally, the BJP`s emphasis on the Hindu narrative has also resonated with certain sections of the middle class. These factors, combined with the opposition`s challenges and the BJP`s strategic positioning, were being considered as a strong basis for Narendra Modi`s return as Prime Minister in the 2024 elections.

One of the primary reasons for Modi`s sway over the middle class is the implementation of various economic policies and development initiatives. Programs such as "Make in India," the Goods and Services Tax (GST), and infrastructure projects have aimed at boosting economic growth, creating job opportunities, and improving the overall business environment. These initiatives have resonated with the middle class, contributing to their support for Modi. The Modi government`s focus on infrastructure development, ease of doing business, and fiscal discipline has been well-received by the middle class, who see these policies as beneficial for economic growth and job creation.

Modi`s ability to connect with the aspirations of the middle class has also been a crucial factor in garnering support. His emphasis on entrepreneurship, digital India, make in India and skill development has resonated with middle-class voters who aspire for a better quality of life and opportunities for advancement.

Moreover, the implementation of infrastructure and welfare programs, such as the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY), Ayushman Bharat, and the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, has contributed to the perception of the government as responsive to the needs of the middle class, bolstering support for Modi.

Additionally, Modi`s government has taken a strong stance on governance and anti-corruption measures, with initiatives such as implementation of anti-corruption measures being perceived as decisive actions to address systemic issues. This has resonated with certain segments of the middle class that prioritize good governance and accountability.

Furthermore, the government`s emphasis on national security and assertive foreign policy has appealed to the middle class, which often values stability and security. Modi`s strong leadership in matters of national security and foreign policy has resonated with this demographic, contributing to their support for his leadership.

The BJP`s alignment with the Hindu narrative has been a significant factor in its appeal to the middle class. The party`s emphasis on cultural and religious identity, as well as its support for policies and initiatives that resonate with Hindu beliefs and traditions, has garnered support from segments of the middle class that identify with or prioritize the Hindu narrative. The party`s promotion of Hindu values and its stance on cultural issues has attracted support from segments of the middle class that prioritize the Hindu narrative. The party`s stance on issues such as the construction of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya and the protection of Hindu traditions and culture has resonated with voters who prioritize Hindu identity and cultural nationalism.

Another factor that has worked in favour of the ruling party is the disunity amongst the Opposition parties despite creating India bloc to contest the elections together. In many states where the Opposition parties had agreed to fight together but now, they are at loggerheads. A very few states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra the Congress party and their allies like Samajwadi Party, RJD and truncated Shiv Sena-NCP combine are still united and may pose some challenge to the ruling party. At the same time in all these states the Congress party has witnessed significant rebellion and many important leaders quite the party and joined the BJP. Factors like leadership crises, lack of a cohesive narrative, and internal conflicts, have worked in favour of the BJP and Modi. The absence of a credible alternative has reinforced the perception among middle-class voters that the BJP is the best choice for stable governance.

Despite the fact that the electoral outcomes of previous elections, particularly the 2019 general elections, where the BJP secured a decisive victory, reflect the support that Modi and the party have garnered from the middle class, the apathy of the same voters in the first two phases of the 2024 elections was very significantly visible.

Amongst many reasons for the apathy of urban middle-class voters during the last two phases of 2024 elections there appears to be two most significant factors that can be attributed to their lower turn out in exercising their franchise. One, the urban middle class voters, which is one of the biggest votaries for BJP’s Hindutva agenda, did not come out to vote in large numbers possibly to convey that they attach the same priority to the political parties and their leaders with which the middle-class voters are treated by them in their political agenda. Two, the growing disenchantment in the urban middle class voters with the existing political discourse, exchange of low-quality barbs amongst political leaders, religious divisions, rising cost of living, lack of employment, closure of medium and small enterprises, deteriorating living conditions in urban cities due to poor quality of water, transport and alarming pollution may have contributed to their reluctance to come out to cast their vote. Whatever may have been the reason this is not a healthy sign for the democratic process. The bigger question is, however, what the lower turnout means for political parties in terms of outcomes.

Truly, the voting percentage is not a clear indicator of voter inclination as in the past lower voter turnout has resulted in the incumbent party returning to power. In 1998, the BJP won 182 Lok Sabha seats with a four-percentage point jump in voting numbers. A year later in 1999, it again won a similar number of seats with a dip of one percentage point in polling. The 2024 election can be seen as a more balanced poll, without a visible wave for any political party or alliance.

In the 2004 elections, the voting percentage recorded was 58.3%, 1.7 percentage points less than the voter turnout in 1999. In 2004, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government was ousted by the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) even though all opinion polls predicted a BJP victory. A decade later in 2014, the voting percentage was 66.44%, the highest in India’s parliamentary election history, and seven percentage points more than in 2009 when the UPA had returned to power. In 2014, the BJP won the election with 282 seats and secured a clear majority on its own. In 2019, the voting percentage increased by about 1.7 percentage points and the BJP got 303 seats on its own.

The BJP and Narendra Modi have emerged as the most favorable party and leader, respectively, among the middle class in India. It is important to note that while the BJP and Narendra Modi have garnered significant support from the middle class, this support is not universal. There are diverse perspectives and opinions within the middle class, and not all individuals align with the party`s policies or the Hindu narrative it promotes. Additionally, the electoral landscape is dynamic, and political preferences are influenced by a range of factors beyond the ones mentioned. Not all individuals within the middle class may align with the BJP`s policies or the narratives it promotes. Additionally, the diversity of perspectives within the middle class and the evolving socio-political landscape should be considered when analyzing Modi`s appeal and influence in the 2024 elections results. As the next phases of elections approach closer, these factors are likely to play a crucial role in determining Modi`s future as Prime Minister on June 4, 2024.

 
 
The writer is national award winning journalist and founder of www.nyoooz.com